SpaceX priced at $135 on June 11. Opened at $150. Closed day one at $160.95. By day three of trading, the stock was near $202. The all-time high hit $225.64 on June 16 — the same day options began trading — and then the whole thing reversed. Hard.
As of July 8, SPCX is trading near $148. That’s below the first-day close. Below what most retail buyers who chased the pop paid. And it’s sitting right on a support zone between $147 and $151 that the chart has been testing for two weeks.
This is not the story people thought they were buying into.
What Actually Happened
The IPO itself was unprecedented by any measure. SpaceX raised $75 billion at a valuation of roughly $1.8 trillion — the largest IPO in history by capital raised, easily topping Saudi Aramco’s 2019 deal. The order book was reported as oversubscribed, and retail investors were earmarked for as much as ~30% of the allocation — materially higher than a typical offering. Platforms like Robinhood, Fidelity, Schwab, SoFi, and E*TRADE all participated. Allocation was tight, and many applicants didn’t get their full fill.
Then options listed on June 16. Day-one volume was unusually large for a brand-new chain. At-the-money implied volatility for the nearest weekly expiry opened around 169%. At the longest available expiry — roughly 912 days out — IV came in near 78%. That spread across the term structure told you everything: the market had no historical anchor, no earnings pattern, no sector norm to calibrate from. Dealers were pricing from scratch.
What followed is exactly what happens when retail euphoria collides with a wall of implied volatility. OTM calls at $220, $250 strikes — carrying extremely high IV — traded in very large size on day one. Most expired worthless within days. The stock peaked, reversed, and the puts that had seemed absurd suddenly looked prescient.
Where It Stands Right Now
The fundamental case for SPCX is real. Starlink generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, up about 48% year over year, and accounted for roughly 61% of total company revenue. The launch business continues to operate at scale no competitor has matched. And the AI segment — via xAI and the Grok platform — adds a layer of optionality that wasn’t in the original SpaceX pitch.
The problem is the GAAP net loss of about $4.9 billion in 2025 against roughly $18.7 billion in revenue. Those numbers kept S&P 500 inclusion off the table. S&P Dow Jones Indices decided on June 4 to keep its existing rules (including the 12-month IPO seasoning period and profitability requirements), effectively pushing S&P 500 eligibility out to June 2027 at the earliest — which means any associated passive demand from S&P 500 trackers isn’t imminent.
SpaceX did join the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, triggering forced buying from index-tracking funds. But that event came and went without a durable bounce.
The Options Picture Right Now
Here’s where it gets interesting. On July 8, Barchart flagged SPCX as the top entry on its Unusual Stock Options Activity Report. The transaction: 17,200 put contracts at the $80 strike, expiring December 15, 2028, traded at roughly 120 times their prior open interest.
At today’s price near $149, these are deep out-of-the-money puts. The $80 strike is $69 below current price. Traders taking the short side are collecting premium on a view that SPCX does not collapse below $80 by late 2028 — and they’re being paid for that exposure. For traders on the other side, the size of the position signals that at least one large participant is willing to warehouse meaningful downside risk at those levels.
That’s a different posture than the panicked OTM call buying of June 16.
The August 6 Date
SpaceX’s next scheduled earnings report date is August 6. That’s less than four weeks away. The market has essentially no public-company earnings history for how this stock moves on earnings. Implied volatility is still elevated relative to mature mega-caps. And the GAAP loss trajectory — with a net loss of about $4.3 billion in Q1 2026 — will draw immediate scrutiny.
What the bulls need to see: Starlink subscriber growth continuing its pace, any improvement in the path toward GAAP profitability, and confirmation that AI infrastructure spending within xAI is generating real revenue. What the bears will look for: widening losses, slowing Starlink adds, or any commentary suggesting major AI-related customer contracts are at risk.
Trade Framework
Bull case: For traders expecting a stabilization into the August 6 report, a cash-secured put at the $140 strike collects premium while defining the cost basis near IPO price. The risk is assignment below $140. If you believe in the Starlink revenue trajectory and can tolerate the volatility, that’s where the risk/reward gets interesting — not at $225.
Bear case: A put debit spread at $145/$130 prices a continued slide toward and below IPO price. The expected move on a first earnings report for a stock this volatile could be substantial. Defined risk is mandatory here — SPCX has no trading history to calibrate against, and surprises go both directions.
Neutral/range case: With the stock compressing between $147 and $155 post-Nasdaq-100 inclusion, a short strangle outside the immediate range collects premium in a sideways environment. The risk is the August 6 report producing a gap move larger than the premium collected. Position sizing matters more than strike selection here.
August 6 is the first real data point. Everything before it is positioning.
